Introducing the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Fannie Mae puts out its monthly National Housing Survey that measures consumers’ attitudes about housing and the economy. In many ways, it’s similar to the consumer confidence indexes. However, the majority of the questions relate to real estate.
In the latest survey, they asked respondents if they considered it a good time to buy and a good time to sell a house. As real estate prices have climbed, people are becoming less confident that it’s a good time to buy. However, they are becoming more confident in it being a good time to sell. As we saw from the National Association of Realtors data, there is a tight inventory problem, suggesting that it’s an excellent time to sell. 64% of respondents think it’s a good time to buy, and 48 of respondents think it’s a good time to sell.
Homebuilders, like PulteGroup (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DHI), use data from the survey to measure consumers’ attitudes toward future home price appreciation. This affects attitudes about risk-taking.
Mortgage REITs, like Annaly Capital (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), use data from the survey to help forecast prepayment speeds. They also use the data to gauge consumer sentiment and its expected impact on the economy.
Questions the survey asks
The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey asks a number of questions, including:
- Do you think the economy is on the right track or the wrong track?
- Looking ahead one year, do you expect your personal financial situation to get much better, somewhat better, stay the same, get worse, or get much worse?
- Looking back over the past year, has your personal financial situation gotten much better, somewhat better, stayed the same, gotten worse, or gotten much worse?
- In general, do you think it’s a very good time, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- In general, do you think it’s a very good time, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to sell a house?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same?
- By what percent do you expect home prices will change over the next 12 months?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home rental prices will go up, go down, or stay the same?
- By what percent do you expect rental prices to change over the next 12 months?
Investors who are interested in trading the homebuilders via an ETF could look at the SP SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB). Investors who want to trade the REIT sector could look at the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM).