Real estate investors, watch for the FOMC minutes (Part 6 of 6)
Ginnie Mae and the to-be-announced market
The Fannie Mae to-be-announced (or TBA) market represents the usual conforming loan, the plain Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage. Meanwhile, Ginnie Mae TBAs are where government loans go, such as the Federal Housing Administration (or FHA) and Veterans Affairs (or VA) loans.
The biggest difference between a Fannie Mae mortgage-backed security (or MBS) and a Ginnie Mae MBS is that Ginnies have an explicit guarantee from the federal government. Fannies don’t have a guarantee, just a “wink-wink, nudge-nudge” guarantee. As a result, Ginnie Mae MBS trade at a premium compared to Fannie Mae TBAs.
Ginnie Mae TBAs continue to underperform Fannie Mae TBAs
The ten-year bond sold off by 10 basis points, with yields increasing from 1.95% to 2.05%. Ginnie Mae TBAs lost 7 ticks, while Fannie Mae TBAs lost only 3 ticks. This is a function of continued low rates and also changes out of the FHFA that make FHA loans cheaper to get—and therefore more attractive to refinance.
Investors have been switching out of Ginnie Mae TBAs and into Fannie Mae TBAs. Mortgage REITs are big users of TBAs in that they can increase or decrease exposure very quickly. While older MBS issues can become illiquid, there’s always a large, liquid market in TBAs. As a result, big moves by REITs will affect the TBA market.
Implications for mortgage REITs
Mortgage real estate investment trusts (or REITs) such as Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) are big holders of Ginnie Mae TBAs. In the fourth quarter, American Capital Agency moved down aggressively in coupon in its TBA portfolio. This accounts for some of the underperformance of the higher-coupon TBAs.
Increases in prepayment speeds are a negative for mortgage REITs. However, you can mitigate that risk by switching into REITs focusing on adjustable-rate mortgages, like MFA Financial (MFA), or real estate companies like Northstar (NRF). Investors who aren’t comfortable looking in depth at MBS portfolios should look at the Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT).
Browse this series on Market Realist:
- Part 1 – The FOMC minutes will be this week’s highlight
- Part 2 – MFA Financial reports earnings as jobs turn the corner
- Part 3 – Economic strength lifts the 10-year bond yield higher
- Real Estate
- Ginnie Mae
- Fannie Mae