Daily News and Information for the Mortgage Loan Originator
Home Prices Take Record Plunge
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
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WASHINGTON, D.C. - Existing-home sales in most states were down from year-ago levels in the fourth quarter, marking the likely bottom for the current housing cycle, while prices in many areas corrected as a result of sellers’ willingness to negotiate, according to the latest quarterly surveys by the National Association of Realtors®.
Total existing-home sales including single-family and condo, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million units in the fourth quarter, down 10.1 percent from a 6.94 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2005. Even with the general decline, six states showed increases in the sales pace from a year ago and one was unchanged. Complete data for three states were not available.
In the fourth-quarter, metro area single-family home prices, examining changes in 149 metropolitan statistical areas, show 71 areas had price gains from a year earlier, including 14 metros with double-digit annual increases, and 73 areas had price declines; five were unchanged.
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said it appears the fourth quarter was the bottom for the current housing cycle. “This information confirms 2006 was the year of contraction, and hopefully the fourth quarter was the bottom of this current business cycle,” he said. “Home sales are leveling at historically high levels, and examination of data within the quarter shows home prices stabilizing toward the end. When we get the figures for this spring, I expect to see a discernable improvement in both sales and prices.”
The national median existing single-family home price was $219,300 in the fourth quarter, down 2.7 percent from a year earlier when the median price was $225,300. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. For all of 2006, the median price rose 1.4 percent to $222,000.
A new comparison of annual single-family home prices in metropolitan areas shows that typical sellers experienced healthy gains on the value of their home over the last five years in almost all 131 available areas, even in areas with recent price declines.
$1 Trillion in Adjustables Face a 25% Increase in Payments This Year Economist John Tuccillo, the former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors recently addressed the Wisconsin Bankers Association and said that over $1 trillion of adjustable mortgages will reset to higher rates in 2007 and stated that those who do not refinance could see payments increase by 25 percent. Tuccillo also warned that how these homeowners cope with the payment increase could trickle through the economy.
Nearly Half of Consumers Say Housing Price Collapse Likely According to the latest Experian-Gallup Personal Credit Index survey, nearly half of all consumers say they think a housing bubble and collapse of housing prices is very likely or somewhat likely in their local residential real-estate market within the next three years. This is up from the 37 percent of Americans who felt this way in May 2005.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales To Improve In an upbeat report released by the National Association of Realtors, the association is predicting that existing-home sales, after reaching the third highest total on record, 6.48 million in 2006, are forecast at 6.44 million in 2007.
Pending Homes Sales Down Due to Weather Fluctuations The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing sector based on contracts signed in January, fell 4.1 percent to an index of 108.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 113.3 in December, and is 8.9 percent lower than January 2006.