Rate Probability: Lower
If you were looking for rates to move lower, last week's dismal Jobs Report was just what the doctor ordered. Rates reacted favorably as the Labor Department reported a much worse than expected loss of 80,000 jobs in March - which was the largest jobs loss reported in five years. If that wasn't bad enough, revisions to both January and February's Jobs Report posted an additional loss of 67,000 jobs. So will the dismal Jobs Report allow rates to continue lower throughout this week?
With an extremely light economic calendar on tap all eyes will be focused on Tuesday's release of the Federal Reserves minutes from their last meeting. Investors will likely read into this report to see if any additional rate easing is in the future. With inflation appearing to be in check and the economy headed squarely for a recession if the remarks of the Fed Governors aren't in tune with the current events rates may move and quickly. However, if the Fed Governors are perceived as not doing enough to stem off the impending recession rates could improve just as fast.
On a technical note, bonds are trading close to the bottom of their current trading floor, so if the continue to rise throughout the week rates will likely move lower. Remember, as bond prices move higher rates move lower.
The bottom line: Unless the Fed Governors have some unexpected remarks contained in the minutes from their last meeting, rates will likely move lower.